NBA Basketball 2011-2012 Season

[endorphinz]

last nite was not pretty. Lin continued to turn the ball over. honestly, he looked like he didn't belong on the court. granted,miami is a better team,period;probably the best team in the league and last nite they really "brought it", swarming,relentless d and frenetic energy. their ferocity would've bothered any point guard. My question is:
where da fuck did mello the assassin go? he was invisible yesterday and amare only peeked his head out a few times.

like I said, time will tell if the knicks can get it together and do any real damage. they have enuf talent and depth. still, miami is the team to beat

[gavagai]

Knickerbockers aren't damaging anyone other than the rest of the pretenders (in the East) outside of Chicago and Miami.

No shame in Lin having a bad game against a team that is just crushing everyone right now.

If you have espn insider you should read Hollinger who always has great analysis (regardless of whether you agree or not the analysis is always interesting).

Anyways, he had a great read on Lin's turnover issues. This probably only interests the true basketball junkie but a fascinating read that shines a bright light on the turnovers.

Anyways pay for the espn insider but i'm posting it below.

[gavagai]

Via John Hollinger:

In another otherwise strong effort, Jeremy Lin had four turnovers Wednesday night -- not an unusual amount, certainly, but more than you'd like from a point guard. Yet for Lin that was actually an unusually low total -- since taking over as the Knicks' starting point guard, he's committed a whopping 59 turnovers in 10 games.

This is a bit jarring when one considers that no player in history has averaged more than five turnovers a game for a season; "history" here means since the beginning of the 1973-74 season because the league didn't track individual turnovers before that time, but that's still nearly four decades of NBA basketball in which no player averaged five miscues a game. The most was by New Orleans' Pete Maravich in 1977-78, when he technically averaged a hair under five but his average rounded up to 5.0. Lin, at 5.9 in this stretch, is nearly a full turnover beyond that.

This, however, is the danger with looking at raw totals rather than percentages. Just focusing on the pure turnover total ignores context, which in this case is vital; few players in history have had the ball in their hands as much as Lin has in the past 10 games. The concept of usage rate, for instance, tells us that Lin's season mark is the fifth-highest in the league, and it's been even higher in these past 10 games. Additionally, he's played 38.2 minutes per game in that stretch. It only follows that he would have a lot of turnovers, as well as a lot of virtually every other raw counting stat (made shots, missed shots, free throws, assists, etc.).

That's where turnover ratio -- the percentage of the possessions a player uses that end in a turnover -- comes in. That's a much more useful barometer of a player's turnover-proneness, and by that measure Lin doesn't grade out as badly.

Even by this measure, the turnovers are a concern: Lin's 15.4 is the highest of any starting point guard except Jason Kidd, and Kidd's mark is by far the highest of his otherwise sublime career. On the other hand, several other young point guards are within range -- Ricky Rubio is at 14.6, for instance, and I don't see anybody complaining about him. John Wall, Mario Chalmers and Steve Nash are a few other players just behind Lin on the list.

We've seen much worse rates than this -- Kendrick Perkins' league-worst mark of 29.5 is nearly double -- but the key distinction is that they are rarely by star players and rarely by guards.

However, Lin is not the first young guard to make a lot of turnovers the first time he was given the keys to the offense, and some of the other ones have turned out to be pretty good. I used Basketball-Reference.com's season-comparison tool to find stat lines that are somewhat similar to Lin's -- high rates of usage, assists and turnovers, age 25 or under, and a season of 1,000 minutes or more.

What I found is that the comparables form a pretty awesome harbinger of Lin's future. My analysis brought up six players; one of them, Damon Stoudamire, was a bit of an odd case since he was on an expansion Toronto team and had to use a ton of possessions but wasn't really on par with the other players on the list.

The other five? Two were hugely talented but saw their careers swallowed up by all the mistakes: Robert Pack and T.J. Ford. But the other three saw their careers turn out a little better: Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson and Russell Westbrook. I'd say Lin would take that, and I would argue his similarities with those three are stronger than with the first two -- he's a better shooter, he's bigger and he's less reliant on pure speed.

Moreover, I think it's fair to assume that his turnover rate is going to decrease (along with his usage rate), for two reasons. First, we're not working with a full-season sample, but just 10 games; what we've seen so far is almost certainly an outlier that will regress somewhat to the mean.

Second and perhaps more importantly, the cavalry has finally shown up. The burst of Linsanity that greeted his arrival to the starting point guard job was so huge in part because there was no choice for New York but to run everything through him; with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire back in the lineup and J.R. Smith and Baron Davis added to the rotation, that's no longer the case.

In fact, Lin's last two games have been his second- and third-lowest turnover outings of his 10-game tenure as a starter, because the Knicks now have more outlets. This is where the idea that Anthony's return would be detrimental breaks down; New York wasn't a particularly good offensive team without Melo even while Lin was going gangbusters, because there just wasn't enough help. If the Knicks suffer now, it will be on defense.

With all that said, Lin's turnovers still bear watching in the coming days and weeks. My presumption is that his turnover rate will go down as he gains experience operating the offense, and as the return of Anthony reduces the strain. But if his rate stays where it is, that's the one thing that could potentially derail what looks to be an All-Star-caliber career.

The other reason to watch the turnovers is a bigger-picture one; in all the Linsanity, I'm not sure anyone has taken a step back and looked at the Knicks these days. They replaced D-League production with All-Star production at point guard, replaced shaky-at-best bench production on the wing with one of the league's better sixth men, and will have Baron Davis coming off the bench until his next injury.

While the frontcourt and backcourt depth remains weak, all of a sudden you're looking at a team with four stars in the starting lineup and two pretty good guards waiting in reserve. A closing quintet of Lin, Smith, Anthony, Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler is a difficult one to top; I would say it trumps 12 of the other 14 Eastern teams, and the other two aren't overwhelmingly better.

That still didn't stop the Knicks from losing at home to New Jersey because of their other weaknesses. But in a playoff series, the A-list talent can play longer minutes, which makes the Knicks a very scary opponent wherever they land in the East; we saw the first hints of that in New York's jog past Atlanta on Wednesday night.

As a result, the big picture takeaway goes something like this: Keep an eye on the turnovers, sure, but don't sweat them unless they get completely out of hand. Other young guards have had similar results and gone on to spectacular careers. And if Lin is really the All-Star-caliber guard that all the early returns suggest, watch out, because New York, for the first time in two decades, seems like a force to be reckoned with this spring.

[endorphinz]

analyze this:
Lin looked like a deer caught in headlights last nite. he was totally ineffective and "the cavalry" must've been ambushed cuz they never showed.

hey, I'm a Knicks fan and really wanna believe but last nite's performance was a reality check. one I knew was coming. they have talent and depth but they need to execute consistently and their superstars need to earn their contracts.

[MaxM]

And there it is, told ya :

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/holes-jeremy-lin-game-plain-ny-knicks-linsanity-hit-skids-article-1.1036741

"On the court, Lin’s star has fallen dramatically, as many NBA people suspected it would, once teams started to really scout him and study his game"

"According to several scouts and GM’s, Lin is projected to settle somewhere between an average starter and above-average starter, at best"

Kinda glad this bullshit is over :)

[zamb]

the kid is not average by any means, he has cut down his turnovers, and is still putting up 7+ assist per game along with double digit scoring....
the problem is the team is not wining, and every one is trying to get D'antoni fired, but he is not the problem.....

There are several problems with this team, however the biggest problem with this team is one Mr. Carmelo Anthony. The Denver Nuggets were a better fit for Carmelo because they had a no-nonsense coach in George Karl, and they had bigs like Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Nene, etc....

these were tough interior defensive players who did not need the ball to be effective, as such, Carmelo could focus on scoring, while these guys dealt with defense, rebounding and getting points playing off of him. It was a competitive team, but not one that could win a championship.

Coming to NY, he needed to change his game and play differently, something he is indeed capable of doing. however, they brought him here, told him that he is the team leader and the System not the players here are not suited to his style of play.

I have said this before and got ripped, but for my Money, Amare Stoudemire is by far the better leader and better player on this team, and if NY wants any chance of winning, they had better play through him while his body is holding up.........
jeremy Lin has done what is needed to bring this team back to .500
its not a coincidence they started losing when Carmelo came back,

[gavagai]

I'm big on criticizing Carmelo but he can't be held accountable for this losing streak:

Take a look at the Nicks last 8 games:

(1) Lost at Miami

(2) Beat Cleveland

(3) Lost at Boston

(4) Lost at Dallas

(5) Lost at San Antonio

(6) Lost at Milwaukee

(7) Lost at Home to Philadelphia

(8) Lost at Chicago


Tough to see even one of those games in which they would have been the favorite to win.

the winning streak?

New Jersey, Utah, @Washington, Lakers, @Minnesota, @Toronto and Sacramento...not exactly a wrecking crew. Beating the Lakers at home with a huge game by Lin was nice but remember that LA was on the tail end of a back to back having played in Boston the night before and having played 4 games the previous 6 day. BRUTAL...

Being average at the pg position in the NBA is very tough.

[endorphinz]

the knicks are 6 games under .500 and playing uninspired, sloppy bb. Lin always appears to be playin out of control. He leaves his feet way too often and tries to make ridiculous passes. He's a bad free throw shooter for a point guard and has a low shooting percentage. The statement that he is average with upside potential to be a bit above average sounds accurate.

Carmello has not played well. period. He has not shot well and at times looks lost.

Amare looks like he's hurt.

The Knicks are a mess and d'antoni will be gone eventually. It's a shame cuz there is enuff talent and depth on the team to comtend

[zamb]

Listen,

Talent wise NY is the second best team in the east........
only Miami Alone has better talent than the Knicks,
Chicago may be the second best team, but that's because they are a team better than the sum of their parts...............and they have an excellent Coach, however they are not a legitimate contender for a Championship (no team has ever won a championship without a dominant inside presence, something missing in the windy city.........) nor can you win in today's game with your point guard as your leading scorer. You can ask Jason Kidd in NJ about that.

NY has all the parts needed to play for a championship, to legitimately contend with Miami, but it will take guys willing to change their games to do that
Carmelo Anthony has gotta play better, change his game, he is a poor rebounder at his position, and with a little effort he would be an excellent defender as he is bigger and stronger than most guys at the SF position, but to me all he is concerned about is getting his scoring with other guys doing the small stuff.............you cannot ask Stoudemire to play off him because Stoudemire is the best offensive big man in the league (even though he is a poor rebounded too at 6' 10".

gavagi,

of those 8 games the Knicks should at least be 4-4
losing only to Miami, Dallas, My Spurs and Chicago.

They should not have lost to Boston, and they should have a shot at beating Chicago with a better defensive effort,
sorry man, I'm not Sold on Derrick Rose and the bulls at all, i see them as a perennial second round/ conference finalist at best..............and again, the kid is not average, and even if that were the cast, there isn't 10 teams in the league with all star caliber PG's.

If I were the GM of NYK, i'm calling Otis Smith in Orlando, and tell him he can have Chandler and Melo, with anyone else outside of Lin and Stoud, for the baddest man on planet basketball

[gavagai]

Otis Smith is always the right person to be dealing with

[gavagai]

stoudemire needs steve nash back.

I'm sure he wouldn't mind having two healthy legs back as well. He has clearly lost some explosion. Getting his shot blocked by opposing guards is not pretty.

[rudo]

Calling the team with the best record in NBA a "perennial second round/ conference finalist at best" is outrageous. Also tell MJ about "no team has ever won a championship without a dominant inside presence". Bulls inside isn't great but it does it job and has a deep rotation.

I would take Lebron over Rose and Heat do have a better chance of winning it all than Bulls, but it is much closer than you make of.

I would also argue that Bulls talent isn't any short of Knicks but a) this can depend on personal preference and b) who cares about talent of a team 6 games under 500 . Knicks really do need a new coach.

I have no problem with rose being their primary go-to guy. They do need to figure out what they will do when Lebron locks down Rose on 4th quarter, but it should be a close series.

[zamb]

Stoudemire does not need Steve Nash, that's of the past
he was an MVP candidate before the Carmelo trade last year, playing with Raymond Felton.......i have watch this guy since his rookie season and he has been one of the most underrated players in the league. he was good before Nash, playing with Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway.........
It was that year, being drafted 9th, that he was rookie of the year, and have Duncan and the Spurs fits in the playoffs. after the microfracture surgeries, he changed his game a lot and became an excellent midrange big man, telling me he is willing to do what it takes to suceed......Anthony came to a team that was already on its way back to relelvance, its up to him to do what it takes to make the team better, not worse...The Coach does not play the game, players do, an Im sure Spolestra doesnt have to tell wade and Lebron to play tough defense or to rebound the ball.....

[zamb]

they have the best record this season bringing back pretty much every one from last season, so its easy ot make the transition, but as ive said before and I'll say again, bigs win championships, not guards.......
Guards are there to make money for the franchise and sell jerseys, but if you want to win, you had better have a guy 6' 9" or bigger who can get you high percentage baskets when called on to do so, or grab a rebound down the stretch to give you extra possessions.

Lets see who did Micheal Jordan play with? Scottie Pippen, posssibly the best all two way player i've watched not named Lebron?.......Horace grant (who was no scrub, but one of the best post defenders/ rebounder of his era and helped Shaq get to the finals in Orlando beating Jordan's bulls, and also played on the Lakers championship teams

Second go round Jordan had Scottie again, with Dennis Rodman whose credentials I dont need to state

I'm gonna bet you some dough that bulls wont win two games against Miami in the playoffs this season?

Calling the team with the best record in NBA a "perennial second round/ conference finalist at best" is outrageous. Also tell MJ about "no team has ever won a championship without a dominant inside presence". Bulls inside isn't great but it does it job and has a deep rotation.

I would take Lebron over Rose and Heat do have a better chance of winning it all than Bulls, but it is much closer than you make of.

I would also argue that Bulls talent isn't any short of Knicks but a) this can depend on personal preference and b) who cares about talent of a team 6 games under 500 . Knicks really do need a new coach.

I have no problem with rose being their primary go-to guy. They do need to figure out what they will do when Lebron locks down Rose on 4th quarter, but it should be a close series.

[endorphinz]

I find it impossible to watch the knicks play with such total disregard for takin care of the ball

don't compare any team with michael jordan on it to any other team... well maybe the wizards but he really wasn't mj then

i'd really like to see okla beat miami in the finals