Trading

[ledger]

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[josecc]

To get the ball rolling, where do we go from here?

I am thinking that 150 by the end of the weekend isn't out of the question. Then again at this rate who knows.

....[/IMG]

I am going to be the pessimistic in this point. In the last two days there have been a lot of media articles (FT, Reuters, etc.) covering the bitcoin (BTC) frenzy, and almost everyone give the words "bubble" and "bursts", and since the BTC are highly sensitive to the media (ex. july 2010 article in Slashdot, prices soaring) I expect the prices will fall really soon (not below the previous fall at 70 USD/BTC).

[josecc]

But yeah, it might reach 150usd/btc, maybe one good way of leading indicator is this:


Source:https://medium.com/money-banking/2b5ef79482cb

[josecc]

No, I am not implying causality, but a high correlation, another example:


Source:http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/04/0...as-un-bitcoin/

First one is the google trend indicator, second is the price.

And one more point, previous peak to approx. 50 was because a big buyer entered the market, and this last frenzy started because of the Cyprus haircut on deposits that trigger the fear in the eurozone.

Hard to know exactly what will happen next, there are no pro derivatives. But people are searching more and more these terms:

[josecc]

...

To be honest, I am more inclined to be pessimistic , but it is hard considering that the reward of a big increase would be huge, let's see what happens this weekend.

Ah, and about the last image, what it is important to note is that same one but using 30 days gives rising terms "sell bitcoins" "get bitcoins", and as you could see, with 7 days, you get rising "buy bitcoins" "BTC to usd". Maybe it is just a temporal signal, anyway, in some of the derivative markets ICBIT and MPEx, there are futures well below and above 150usd/btc, this is because these markets lack liquidity.

[Geoffrey B. Small]

Dear Ledger, interesting thread (although not sure how it relates to "style," I can see how it relates to "Zeitgeist," and I thank you for starting it. Clearly, BTC is a revolutionary concept, and as one who is in a currently targeted EC country by ECB, IMF and EC raiding interests, I am curious about this new development. Am not a super-active trader, and like probably a zillion folks out there, would like to get a read on the liquidity risks of this new "currency." So what do you guys think? Whether the quote values go up or down...If someone buys into some Bitcoins, how, and will, they be able to cash out if they wish to, over the short term? Long term? Would not just plain gold be better as a Euro, Dollar or Pound alternative? I am no great fan of Central Banks these days, but a currency backed by Anonymous (as a lot of the media is defining it) is let's just say a little tough to get my head around as well. I am not sure causality and twitter activity should be written off too easily. Your comments greatly appreciated... Cheers Geoffrey

[josecc]

...liquidity risks of this new "currency." ...If someone buys into some Bitcoins, how, and will, they be able to cash out if they wish to, over the short term? Long term? Would not just plain gold be better as a Euro, Dollar or Pound alternative?

Dear Geoffrey, sorry for the late response. I am in no way an expert in this topic, but a total amateur. Anyway. The liquidity risk is really big, at this moment with the incredible price of 230USD, because the majority of players in the market have, as motive, pure speculation, and the new ones also. This means that a moment will come when everybody will start to withdraw their positions and the price will go really low, because BTC unlike USD/EUR is almost completely useless to make relevant transactions in real life (neither ebay nor amazon accept this coin). So, if you have bad luck of entering the market in last peak, you will end selling lower than you bought. Having said this, there is the possibility that you can cash money in the very short term, it is very risky indeed (and more now), but, you know, high risk-high return.

Also, gold is an option today, prices have decreased, and with no strong economic recovery in sight this could be a good option for a medium term investment.

Some economist think that the monetary easing by the FED (and other big central banks) is not helping but only creating a financial bubble because with these very low interest rates people and institutions look for alternative and more risky form of investment (you see BTC for instance). I do not agree at all, I think that without the expansionary monetary policy the economic contraction would be worse, but I do think that many bubbles are rising in the financial sector and real investment is just not happening (we need more expansionary fiscal policy but the governments or congress are very conservative).

Not related directly with clothes, but at the end, all consumption is affected by the disposable income of a person/country.

[josecc]

Not sure everyone expected this come Monday morning. [/IMG]

Not at all, I think you were right being optimistic but now you agree that prices will drop really soon, isn't it? For example, and I know this depends on the specific risk aversion of each people, but which is your threshold to withdraw your position? my threshold was 200USD, so now I almost have no BTC.

About LTC, I think the price will double with the introduction in the Mtgox market, what do you think?

[sam_tem]

wasn't this whole bubble started on the rumors that the online gambling companies were going to start using bitcoin as their currency....and the silk road crap?

anyhow, seems like BTC could use a fed of their own to cool down momentum before the thing becomes the target of every hacker and goes bust.

[josecc]

...

True, but look at the market right now, everybody is selling...

BTW, congratulation for successful investment.

[josecc]

Well no one expected that...or did they. Well done Gox for having the shittest servers known to man and not stopping trading when they couldn't handle it like other exchanges e.g Bitstamp whos price is now back up.

Rebound I reckon then back on track?

I think you are right, price will increase again, but this shows how volatile is this market, I am not sure but rumours about this crashing was because some big user sold 5k BTC at 200USD each or a DDOS attack. An article about things might cause crashing:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-could-cause-bitcoin-prices-to-crash-2013-4

And yes, Mtgox and the others must stop when they could not meet the order in real (decent) time.

[josecc]

Think it is safe to say that the above looks pretty close to what just happened...

Now price is approx. 60 USD, but Mtgox is not operating, so when this market starts again price could increase (or even double), but I think I have a very risk aversion at this point, so I will not buy anymore even price is "cheap".

Given the problem in eurozone, very slow economic recovery, austerity plans and conservative attitude of the ECB, future bailout in other countries (f.ex. Slovenia), I think it is safer shorting the Euro.

[josecc]

..

Thanks for the heads up mate, that is interesting. And yes, it is pretty annoying that here in the UK if we want to send money to these markets we need to pay high fees for SEPA transfers or to triangulate the money with Transferwise or some similar.